NL Wild Card Game Predictions: Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies

NL Wild Card Game Predictions: Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies

The 2017 MLB Playoffs are practically set with just one game remaining to determine the NL Wild Card team which will be either the Arizona Diamondbacks or the Colorado Rockies, that will go on to compete against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLDS. If you still don’t have your pick make sure to keep reading and get the prediction below.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies Betting Prediction

  • When: October 04, 2017, 8:08 PM ET
  • Where: Chase Field
  • Moneyline: Diamondbacks -175 vs Rockies +165
  • Over/Under: 8.5

Betting on the Rockies

Back in early September, the Rockies split a four-game series played at Arizona.

The Rockies earned the second NL wild card sport over the Milwaukee Brewers by one game and made the postseason despite losing two of three games to the Dodgers last weekend.

It’ll be a first for greenhorn Jon Gray (10-4, 3.67 ERA) in the playoffs, who went 2-1 in three starts versus the Diamondbacks this season with a 3.50 ERA, including a perfect 2-0 mark at Chase Field.

Gray has been by far the best starting pitcher for the Rockies this season.

It comes as no surprise he gets the nod in this game. In 2017 the Colorado right-hander posted a 3.67 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 110.1 innings.

Though he missed most of the first half because of a stress fracture in his foot in April, he posted a 3.2 WAR, good for 16th in the National League and ahead of guys like Taijuan Walker and Jake Arrieta.

He then closed out the year well, posting a 2.45 ERA in 11 starts in August and September. And, in two starts against Arizona in this season, Gray allowed four runs in 13 innings, striking out 20 and walking just one.

Betting on the Diamondbacks

It’ll be a sellout crowd at Chase Field tonight, so expect things to be somewhat crazy.

There are more than a few factors going for the Diamondbacks and practically everyone is expecting them to win tonight.

First, the D’backs own the best record of any Wild Card in both leagues (tied with the Red Sox and one game better than the Cubs).

Second, of course, the have ace Zack Greinke (17-7, 3.20) who has a world of experience over Gray. However, though Greinke is 2-1 against Gray, he has a tad lower ERA at 3.41 in five starts.

Greinke nevertheless has dominated at home where he’s gone 13-1 with a 2.87 ERA in 18 outings.

Greinke also has a big advantage in postseason play, obviously because Gray is making his first postseason appearance.

Greinke is 3-3 with a 3.55 ERA in nine postseason starts, four of which came recently as a member of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

And, when you take away his 2011 postseason games with the Brewers, Greinke has never given up more than three earned runs in a postseason start, lasting at least six innings in each start.

Betting on the Rockies

The Rockies are in the playoffs for the first time since 2009, so it’s fair to say there’s motivation enough to win.

Diamondbacks vs Rockies Betting Trends

  • The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Colorado's last 13 games
  • Colorado is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
  • Colorado is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
  • Arizona is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
  • Arizona is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games at home

Expert MLB Prediction: These two teams are no strangers, having played 19 times during the regular season. The Diamondbacks won 11 of those meetings, outscoring the Rockies 101-69.

The D-backs and Rockies played seven times in September with the D-backs winning five of those games, so I’m expecting Arizona to win this game.

 
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