2017 College Football Updated Bowl Projections

The NCAA College Football Playoffs bowl projection was shaken up by some big upsets last weekend, making this weekend’s games very important for a lot of schools hoping to be included in the final four on Sunday.

Since this is Conference Championship Week, there are a lot of big games on the schedule that will either clarify the playoff picture or muddy it up some more.

The conference championships kick off on Friday with Stanford playing USC in the Pac 12 Championship. A win for USC will strengthen their case to be included in the final four if any of the top teams lose, but a win for Stanford won’t move them into the playoff discussion.


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College Football Bowl Projections 2017

 #11 TCU Horned Frogs vs #3 Oklahoma Sooners

When: December 02, 2017, 12:30 PM ET
Where: AT&T Stadium
Spread: Sooners -7.5
Total: 63.5
Moneyline: Sooners -270 vs Horned Frogs +230
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It’s the first Big 12 Championship game since 2010 and this one pits Oklahoma against TCU.

The Horned Frogs and Sooners topped teams like Oklahoma State, West Virginia and Iowa State to make it to this game which makes things interesting because all of these teams had a successful season.

Like the Stanford vs USC game, a win for TCU will move them into the top 10, but it likely won’t be enough to earn them a spot in the final four if any of the teams lose because the committee doesn’t regard TCU highly.

For the Horned Frogs, defense is the name of the game. This year, they’ve only allowed 15.7 points per game while limiting opponents to 223 passing yards and 90 via the ground.

This is good for the Horned Frogs because they’ll be going up against, perhaps, one of the best quarterbacks in the nation: Baker Mayfield.

TCU’s secondary will be pushed to its limits, however, by Oklahoma’s pass attack.

It doesn’t help that TCU’s defense has been broken before by the team they’re facing on Nov 12; on that occasion, the Sooners’ offense passed for 333 yards and ran for another 200.

A win for Oklahoma solidifies their position in the final four, but don’t expect this to be an easy outing for the Sooners because the Horned Frogs will be motivated to play spoiler, especially after losing to the Sooners during the regular season.

To state the obvious, Baker Mayfield is a key player for the Sooners. Arguably, Oklahoma’s offense is riding on his prowess as a quarterback.

Mayfield is a talented player, one that threw for over 4,000 yards this year with only 5 interceptions to his name. Add this to his 42 touchdowns and you can understand why he’s so important.

This Heisman Trophy candidate will be the Horned Frogs defense’s focus; if somehow they can rattle his cage, it’ll put the Sooners in hot waters.

This also means the Sooners will have to have a backup plan in store to counter what will likely be a relentless attack on their QB.

In other words, Oklahoma will have to kick in with their running game in order to lessen the burden on Mayfield’s shoulders.

Sooners vs Horned Frogs Betting Trends

  • Texas Christian is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Texas Christian's last 8 games
  • Texas Christian is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Oklahoma
  • Oklahoma is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
  • Oklahoma is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
  • Oklahoma is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Texas Christian

#6 Georgia Bulldogs vs #2 Auburn Tigers

When: December 02, 2017, 4:00 PM ET
Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Spread: Tigers -2
Total: 48.5
Moneyline: Tigers -140 vs Bulldogs +120
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This is where things get tricky and interesting. The Bulldogs lost their only game of the season to the Tigers, but with the game being played in Atlanta, this will essentially be a home game for the Bulldogs, who will want some payback.

However, the Tigers are playing incredibly well now after having lost to LSU on Oct. 14. Last Saturday, Auburn won the SEC West title by defeating Alabama and has scored at least 40 points in four out of their last five games, while not allowing more than 20 points in that same span.

This means Georgia will be playing against a team that might be too hard to stop.

Nevertheless, the Tigers might have lost one of their main weapons in last week’s win over Alabama. Running back Kerryon Johnson, who’s rushed for 1,276 yards and 17 touchdowns this year, left the game because of a shoulder injury and is questionable to play on Saturday.

Johnson has been instrumental in Auburn’s effectiveness on third down conversions and his absence might make the difference between winning and losing.

A win by the Tigers will keep them safely in the final four, but a loss will give them three losses on the year and should eliminate them from the playoffs.

A win by the Bulldogs should help them leapfrog Alabama, which was dropped to #5 after losing to Auburn last week.

Even if the Bulldogs lose, they’ll not likely drop out of the top 10 in the final rankings and would find themselves in a New Year’s Six bowl which gives testament of the job coach Kirby Smart has done in only his second year at the helm.

Georgia vs Auburn Betting Trends

  • Georgia is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games
  • Georgia is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Georgia's last 7 games
  • Auburn is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 7 of Auburn's last 9 games
  • Auburn is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Georgia

#7 Miami Hurricanes vs #1 Clemson Tigers

When: December 02, 2017, 8:00 PM ET
Where: Bank of America Stadium
Spread: Tigers -9.5
Total: 46
Moneyline: Tigers -350 vs Bulldogs +290
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Losing on the road to an unranked Pittsburgh team pushed the Hurricanes to 7th, but the committee will have a lot of explaining to do if they leave the Hurricanes out of the final four if they defeat Clemson in the ACC Championship game.

Despite the loss, Miami’s offense is solid and if they can get back in the saddle they have more than a fair shot at winning this game.

However, a couple of injuries to key players may make it difficult for the Hurricanes. Tight end Christopher Herndon is out due to a knee injury and so is receiver Ahmmon Richards. That they’re also missing running back Mark Walton doesn’t help either.

The Tigers, on the other hand, won’t have to worry about being left out of the final four if they get the win.

If they get the win, it’ll make it the third straight time the Tigers take the trip to the CFB Playoff along with its third ACC title in a row.

The Tigers haven’t missed a beat since winning the national championship last year and despite the loss of key players including its quarterback Deshaun Watson.

Their new QB, Kelly Bryant, filled in Watson’s shoes and has been equally impressive. The Tigers also continue to have a solid rushing attack that put up an average of 200 yards per game. And, their defense remains as strong as ever.

Hurricanes vs Tigers Betting Trends

  • Miami-FL is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
  • Miami-FL is 15-1 SU in its last 16 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Miami-FL's last 9 games
  • Clemson is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
  • Clemson is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Miami-FL
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Clemson's last 5 games when playing Miami-FL

#8 Ohio State Buckeyes vs #4 Wisconsin Badgers

When: December 02, 2017, 8:00 PM ET
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium
Spread: Buckeyes -7.5
Total: 63.5
Moneyline: Sooners -270 vs Horned Frogs +230
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This is where things get complicated. A win by Ohio State over the Badgers should put them on the fringe of the playoffs, but if last year taught us anything, the committee will find a way to justify having them in the playoffs.

The Badgers should get in if they win the game, but they had a weak schedule this season, which has been held against them for most of the year and could be held against them again this week to justify putting a team like Alabama in the playoffs over them.

A loss will certainly drop them out of playoff contention, making this a very big game for the Badgers.

If Wisconsin wins, it’ll be their first trip ever to the Playoff. Last year, the Badgers found themselves in Indianapolis playing against Penn State with a 28-7 lead in the first half which turned into a disheartening 38-31 loss.

To say this is a high-stakes game would be an understatement. Now, traditionally the ACC and SEC title games are the standard play-in games for the playoffs.

Wisconsin is now ranked 4th and should they win, they have a good shot at being in the four-team field. As for Ohio State, a win still means they’ll have to hope TCU beats Oklahoma or that they’re wins give them enough to overcome their two losses to win over the 11-1 Alabama.

What do you think about the updates on the bowl projections?

 
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