College Football ATS, SU & O/U Picks: Louisville Cardinals vs NC State Wolfpack

College Football ATS, SU & O/U Picks: Louisville Cardinals vs NC State Wolfpack

Week 6 of the college football season kicks off with a Thursday night ACC matchup between the Louisville Cardinals and the NC State Wolfpack.

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Louisville Cardinals vs NC State Wolfpack

  • When: October 05, 2017, 8:00 PM ET
  • Where: Carter-Finley Stadium
  • Spread: Louisville -3
  • Over/Under: 65
  • Moneyline: Louisville -165 vs NC State +145

Louisville Cardinals Betting Analysis

The Cardinals came into the season hoping to make the College Football Playoffs, but struggled out of the gates.

They barely beat an unranked Purdue team at home to kick off the season, then won a close road game against the North Carolina Tar Heels the following week.

Their defensive struggles caught up with them in week 3 against Clemson, in a game the team ended up losing 47-21.

Since the Clemson game, Louisville has won two consecutive games in impressive fashion, even though they came against some very bad teams.

Also, since the start of the 2015 regular season, Clemson is the only ACC team to beat Louisville.

This week, the Cardinals will find out more about themselves and their slim chances of making the playoffs against a tough NC State team that loves to pressure the quarterback.

Quarterback Lamar Jackson continues to amaze as he pursues his second Heisman Trophy win.

The Jackson led offense is averaging 40 points per contest, which is 23rd in the league.

Most defenses haven't figured out a way to stop Jackson and if the Cardinals are hot at NC State and later this month at Florida State (Oct. 21), then it would probably be 10-win season and possibly the first New Year's Six bowl game for the program since Charlie Strong and Teddy Bridgewater took down Florida in the Sugar Bowl.

Defensively, their average has dropped to 24.6 points allowed per game, thanks to their recent success, but they still have a lot of work to do if they want to compete with the likes of Clemson and Alabama.

The Cardinals will be going into this game 0-6 against ranked opponents on the road, and would love to end that streak with a quality win over a strong NC State team.

NC State Wolfpack Betting Analysis

The Wolfpack came into the season hoping to compete for the ACC crown, and after their first game of the season, a loss to the South Carolina Gamecocks, the team was written off.

Since their opening day loss, the Wolfpack have won four consecutive games, including a road win over 12th ranked Florida State.

NC State has a tough schedule ahead of them with games against Clemson and Notre dame still on the schedule. A win over Louisville will be the statement the team needs to let the rest of the ACC know they are for real.

Offensively, NC State is averaging 34.8 points per game, which is the 42nd highest in the NCAA this season. Their defense is also holding opponents to 23.4 points per game, which is 52nd in the country.

NC State has been very balanced offensively and have been defeating opponents through the air and on the ground. If they can move the ball at will against the Cardinals, they should be able to keep the game close.

However, they have to figure out a way to slow down Jackson, which is easier said than done, but if they can force him to turn the ball over, or make bad decisions, they should be able to come away with a win in this one.

NC State is nationally ranked for the first time since the end of the 2010 season. Stopping Lamar Jackson will be a big part of staying in the rankings after this week, so winning is a must for the Wolfpack.

Last season, NC State was embarrassed on the road 54-13, so I expect them to come into this one looking for some payback.

A win tonight would give NC State an advantage over two of the top teams in the division (Louisville, Florida State) with Clemson coming to visit on Nov. 4.

Coach Dave Doeren has yet to win more than three conference games in a season, but there's a chance the Wolfpack could be in the mix for a division title if they beat the Cardinals.

Louisville Cardinals vs NC State Betting Trends

  • Louisville is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
  • Louisville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
  • Louisville is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
  • North Carolina State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
  • North Carolina State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
  • North Carolina State is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home

Pick and Prediction

  • ATS Pick: The Cardinals are favored to win by -3.5, but I’m taking the Wolfpack +3.5.
  • Straight up Pick: Louisville
  • Over/under Pick: Under 66.5

 
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