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There's a lot going on in Week 14 of College Football. Before previewing every championship game this week, it's important to look at the updated College Football Playoff Championship odds. The oddsmakers, in a lot of ways, have already shown the Selection Committee's hand. There should be no doubt in anybody's mind that the oddsmakers are almost guaranteeing that Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson and Washington make it to the CFP this season.
Odds to Win the College Football Playoff Championship
- Alabama 5-7
- Ohio State 2-1
- Clemson 6-1
- Washington 8-1
- Wisconsin 20-1
- Michigan 20-1
- Oklahoma 30-1
- Oklahoma State 50-1
- Penn State 50-1
- Colorado 80-1
- West Virginia 1000-1
The weirdness starts with Wisconsin at 20-1. The Badgers play in the Big Ten Championship this week against Penn State. Penn State beat Ohio State, the 2-1 second choice to win the CFP. What gives? Shouldn't the winner of the Big Ten Championship represent the Big Ten in the CFP? Conference champions deserve to represent their conferences in the College Football Playoff Championship, right? Am I missing something here?
That's the way it works in the NFL. Even if the winner of the AFC South, probably Tennessee, turns out to be 9-7, or even 8-8, they get homefield advantage over a team like Denver or Kansas City or Oakland from the AFC West who may end up with only 4 to 6 losses in the playoffs. The reason is because division winners won their division.
By paying absolutely no attention to whether or not a team wins its conference, the CFP Selection Committee has turned NCAAF into the NBA. Sure, the NCAAF doesn't have lax rules regarding marijuana the way that the NBA does, but when it comes to crowning a champion, there's no difference.
In the NFL, you must fight to win your division, to beat Dallas if you're Washington or to beat Green Bay if you're Detroit. Then, you must win your conference to represent your conference in the Super Bowl. But in college football, eh, winning your conference doesn't mean squat. That's just like the NBA where when the playoffs start, every team is seeded based on their record.
If the Big Ten winner gets hosed and the Selection Committee chooses Ohio State, the CFP will prove to be just as ridiculous a way of choosing a champion as the BCS was. More so, in my mind. At least the BCS involved other opinions like the AP's, ,the Coaches' Poll and a Commodore 64 computer that they had hidden in the basement. The Selection Committee are a bunch of football fans, not even football experts, who just choose at will.
Okay, enough negativity. Let's get to this week's conference championship games!
NCAA Football Conference Title Game Odds and Picks
MAC Championship
Western Michigan -19 vs Ohio
Undefeated Western Michigan has already gone from a -17 favorite in the MAC Championship to a -19 favorite. Ohio doesn't appear to stand much of a chance against a team that beat Central Michigan, a squad that Ohio lost to, 49 to 10. Why isn't the Selection Committee considering Western Michigan for the CFP? Oh, yeah, they don't have the reputation. They just have an undefeated straight up and 9-3 against the spread record. I think Western Michigan wins by at least 3 TDs.
Pac-12 Championship
Washington -7 vs Colorado
Colorado is a good team. But the former Pac-12 doorstop might be in over its head against Washington in the Pac-12 Championship. The Buffalos should be competitive enough to keep this game close until the middle of the third quarter. At that point, Washington's much better offense will start to wear down Colorado's front seven. The Huskies win and cover.
C-USA Championship
Louisiana Tech at Western Kentucky -7.5
It's difficult to see Western Kentucky covering a -7.5 spread against Louisiana Tech in the Conference USA Championship. My gut tells me that this game is going to be eerily like the game on Oct. 2 when L-Tech beat Western Kentucky 55 to 52. Yes, I know that Western Kentucky's defense has played much better in the last month of the season. But stopping Florida Atlantic, Florida International, North Texas and Marshall is a lot easier to do than stopping the La Tech Bulldogs and their 44 points and 517 yards per game offense.
MWC Championship
San Diego State -7 at Wyoming
Surprise Wyoming beat San Diego State 34 to 33 on Nov. 19. Why is San Diego State favored by 7 points in this game? Well, Wyoming did lose 66 to 69 to UNLV and 35 to 56 to New Mexico in 2 out of their last 3 games. Yeah, maybe, that's why. I'm backing San Diego State.
ACC Championship
Clemson -10 vs Virginia Tech
This is tougher than it looks. The Hokies finished the season hot winning 5 out of their last 6. They beat Miami, Pitt and Notre Dame in 3 of the 5 wins. Those are 3 tough teams that the Hokies took down. Clemson is undefeated. They've had moments of being brilliant. They've also had moments where they just haven't played all that well. The Tigers may win the game, but I think it's going to be difficult to cover the spread. I like Virginia Tech ATS.
SEC Championship
Alabama -22.5 vs Florida
Florida has had ups and downs this season. The Gators did win the SEC East, but it wasn't easy. I just don't see how Florida does anything that keeps them close in this one. When they play against one-dimensional offensive teams like LSU they can keep it close. Alabama is not a one-dimensional offensive team. The Crimson Tide can run or pass the football. Another thing, does any football handicapper really believe that Florida's offense has a shot against the Alabama defense? I don't. Alabama rolls in this matchup.
Big Ten Championship
Wisconsin -3 vs Penn State
I saved the best for last only because one of these two, either Wisconsin or Penn State, is going to get screwed out of a trip to the College Football Playoff. Wisconsin should be favored but I'm leaning towards the Nittany Lions. To me, Penn State is a Top 5 team. They've proven it by going 8-0 straight up and 7-0-1 against the spread in their final 8 regular season games. Wisconsin has been winning. They just haven't been winning as impressively as Penn State has. I like the Nittany Lions in this battle.
