How To Bet The 2016 College Football Playoff Games
The Final 4 takes on a whole different sports meaning closing out 2016 with Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State and Washington, the chosen ones, battling it out in the College Football Playoffs. On New Years Eve top seeded Alabama (13-0) is more than a 2 touchdown favorite versus No. 4 seed Washington (12-1) and the No. 2 seed Clemson (12-1) is an underdog to 3rd seeded Ohio State (11-1).
How To Bet The 2016 College Football Playoff Games
The winners of the Washington vs Alabama and Clemson vs Ohio State games have over a week to prepare for each other in the College Football Playoff National Championship game on January 9th in Tampa, Florida at Raymond James Stadium.
Well we as college football bettors also have some time to figure out who we think will be the champion and to figure out the most profitable way to take advantage of this foresight. The betting odds to win these early games and the college football futures to finish as the Number 1 team in NCAA Football are all available for us, but which betting style would be more profitable I wonder?
NCAA football futures are available for all 4 teams to bet now for an all or nothing bet, but what if we put all our money on our chosen team’s moneyline in the first game and then let our bet plus our win amount all ride on the SECOND game moneyline?
I will explain by starting with the longshot Washington Huskies and move through Clemson, Ohio State and finally the favorite Alabama Crimson Tide. I will use $100 as the starting bankroll for each team and situation.
The Washington Huskies are +1400 to win the College Football Playoffs and the Championship, so $100 on them on a future bet to win it all would win you $1,400. When adding the $100 you started with you obviously have $1.500.
On the other hand, Washington is +625 on the moneyline against Alabama in the opening playoff round. If we put $100 on the football betting moneyline against Alabama and win we would have $625 won plus the $100 we made a football bet with totaling $725.
If the Huskies win that, the early NCAA football betting line says Washington would be +125 on the moneyline if they played Ohio State or +100 on the moneyline if they played Clemson. If we put that whole $725 against Ohio State we would win 906.25 which would give us $1,631.25 total, or if we put it all against Clemson at EVEN money and won we would double our money to $1,450.
Both of the rollover options return a little bit more than just betting the one-time future line, so for a little more money you would roll the money over if you were betting the Washington Huskies.
The total for $100 on the Clemson Tigers future would give you $800 win plus $100 bet which gives you $900 total.
The moneyline against Ohio State is +140, so if you fired the C-note on Clemson and they won you would have $140 won plus $100 you made bet with so $240. Are you starting to get this now? It is EZ SO EZ.
The projected moneyline on Clemson if they play Washington would be -130 and if they pay Alabama would be +350. By firing that $240 on each scenario you would have $424.62 playing Washington or $840 + $240 or $1,080 against Alabama. In this situation, you have more football betting upside just betting the futures line +800 if Washington wins over Alabama, but the more likely outcome is Alabama wins and you would make a better profit rolling your money in that scenario.
This is a little tricky but you can handle it here. It’s not a coin flip who wins, and Alabama’s probability to beat Washington is 85%. This means the rollover betting scenario has an 85% chance to have $1,080 and 15% chance to end up with $424.62.
When you add those 2 probabilities, your expected value in the rollover scenario is $981.57. You would need to get +882 to make the future bet more profitable, and since it isn’t that high, your smarter NCAA College Playoffs bet in this case is to bet and roll your moneyline bets.
OHIO STATE +450
Putting $100 on Ohio State as a future bet at +450 would give you a win of $450 for a total of $550.
If you tried rolling your win into the next game and put the same $100 on the Ohio State Moneyline at -160 versus Clemson you would win $62.50 on your bet giving you a total of $162.50 to roll into your next NCAA Football moneyline bet. Ohio State is projected to be -160 if they were to play Washington and +300 on the moneyline if they play Alabama.
If you play the $162.50 at -160 playing Washington you would win $101.56 bringing your total to $264.06, and if you played that cash against the Crimson Tide at +300 you would win $487.50. When you add that to your bet amount that you are rolling, the total would be $650.
In this scenario the smarter play is to roll the money on Ohio State if they play Alabama but we have to figure out another probability. Since there is an 85% chance that ‘Bama whips the Huskies, we must use that number also by taking 85% times $650 and the 15% times $264.06. That is $552.50 + $39.61 + $592.11.
What that means is that the $100 plus your sportsbook’s rate has to be more than $592.11. The sportsbook has to be +493 or more to take the future on Ohio State instead of rolling it, and since it is below that rolling your moneyline bet is your higher expected value.
If you play the Alabama Crimson Tide betting future with the $100 you would win $40 giving you a total of $140 if they take the NCAA National Championship.
The sports betting moneyline on Alabama versus Washington is -1000, so you would win $10 giving you $110 on your first moneyline bet. If you roll the $110 against Ohio State in the 2nd game which is projected to be -400 you would make $27.50 giving you $137.50.
If you wager your sports bet wad of $110 into the projected moneyline against Clemson they would be -500 in that rematch. You would only make another $22 on that giving you a grand total of $132 on rolling your moneyline bets.
Obviously both of these rollover bets are less money than just playing the future on Alabama on one bet where you will make a little more sports betting cash. It is also a lot less work by just playing a team at the beginning.
For the most part, this experiment shows there are certain NCAA football bets that are worth taking the time to figure out all these sportsbook odds to maximize you sports gambling dollar. We have also seen that many times it is just a lot of extra work for what turns out to be less money won on sports bets or close to the same.