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2017 NFL Season:‬‬ New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs Betting Guide

2017 NFL Season:‬‬ New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs Betting Guide

The defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots kick off the 2017 NFL season on Thursday night when they host the Kansas City Chiefs at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro Massachusetts. Read on to get the best ATS, SU, and Over/Under pick for this game!

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New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs

  • When: September 07, 2017, 8:30 PM ET
  • Where: Gillette Stadium
  • Spread: Patriots -9
  • Over/Under: 48.5
  • Moneyline: Patriots -465 vs Chiefs +390

Kansas City Chiefs Analysis

The Chiefs finished last season 12-4, which was good enough to win the competitive AFC West. The team played the Steelers in the Divisional round of the playoffs, but fell short and Pittsburgh went on to play the Patriots in the AFC Championship game.

Kansas City made a couple of surprising moves in the offseason that might impact their success this year. The Chiefs got rid of veteran receiver Jeremy Maclin, who was their top receiver last season despite the emergence of Tyreek Hill. Releasing Maclin saved the team some money, but not having him around can have a negative impact especially if Hill struggles this season.

Another surprising move the Chiefs made was releasing running back Jamaal Charles. However, the move made sense because Charles had been plagued by injuries in recent years and the team could not afford to continue paying him a lot of money if he can’t stay healthy.

The fact that Spencer Ware filled in very ably for Charles made him expendable during the offseason. Like I mentioned earlier with Maclin, injuries can make smart moves look bad and that might be the case with the Charles release.

Ware went into the offseason as Kansas City’s top running back, but suffered an injury in the preseason that will keep him out indefinitely this year and now, the Chiefs have to rely on rookie Kareem Hunt to carry the workload.

Obviously, that the Chiefs are missing their main option as running back is worrying at the very least; but, in my opinion what’s more concerning is how Kansas City played in their preseason week 3 game against the Seahawks.

In order to beat the Patriots, the Chiefs will have to hit the ground running. From what I saw against Seattle, they did anything but play as will be needed to compete with the Pats.

What’s also worrying is the absence of cornerback Steven Nelson. Tom Brady will have a field day against Phillip Gaines if the Chiefs choose to go with him.

I’m not saying the Chiefs cannot stand up to New England, but they’ll need to have a flawless game and, perhaps, capitalize on plays with their special teams.

They’ll also need to hit Brady hard right from the get-go; KC’s front seven will have to pressure Brady to at least make him work hard.

However, while I have some confidence in Alex Smith leading the offense effectively, I’m less certain the defense has what it takes to slow Brady and the Patriots’ offense down.

Ramik Wilson seems to have improved, and players like Kevin Pierre-Louis and Ukeme Eligwe showed a lot of promise in the preseason, but they’ll soon find out if they can cover and contain running backs like Dion Lewis and James White.

Chiefs Betting Trends

  • Kansas City is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
  • Kansas City is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Kansas City's last 13 games
  • Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road

New England Patriots Analysis

The Patriots are the favorites to win the Super Bowl again this year, but their road to the Super Bowl got a little tougher two weeks ago when Julian Edelman suffered a season-ending injury during a preseason game.

Without Edelman in the lineup, Tom Brady will have to rely more heavily on Rob Gronkowski and new comers like Brandin Cooks to pick up the slack.

With Brady under center, the Patriots will still be very difficult to beat, but Edelman’s injury makes them more vulnerable.

Bill Belichick is not one to underestimate his opponents. Here’s what he had to say about Chiefs coach Andy Reid: “Andy’s a great coach. (He’s) been with one and now two organizations. I respect the way he coaches his team. I respect the way they play. They’re always tough. We’ve always had great battles with them. I don’t think anybody’s – I can think of too many teams that have handled us better than the way they handled us in 2014.”

New England was busy improving the team during the offseason, and brought in players like Stephon Gilmore to help bolster their defense, while adding running backs Rex Burkhead and Mike Gillislee to fill in for the departed LeGarrette Blount.

Blount leaving was very surprising considering he led the league in rushing touchdowns last season. His penchant for fumbling the ball might have deterred the team from signing him, but not having a reliable running game is something that can impact the team’s success this year.

Without the threat of Blount in the backfield, Brady will be forced to throw more than he usually does, which will make the team more predictable and easier to defend against.

Brady also mentioned some of the Chiefs’ defenders who he’s keeping an eye on, “Derrick Johnson is one of the best linebackers in the league. He does so many things for that defense. You can tell it really hurts them when he’s not out there. And Eric Berry is a big time playmaker. Marcus Peters – more interceptions than anybody since he came in the league. [Justin] Houston and [Dee] Ford, I mean, they strip sack the quarterback.”

Despite all that, the Patriots should be able to defeat the Chiefs on Thursday.

Patriots Betting Trends

  • New England is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
  • New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games
  • New England is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home

ATS Pick

The Patriots are favored to win this game by 9 points. Last season, New England went 16-3 ATS, which was the best mark in the league, while the Chiefs went 9-7-1 ATS. The Chiefs are 0-6 in New England, and 2-4 ATS in those games. Take the Patriots at -9.

Straight Up Pick

As previously mentioned, the Chiefs are 0-6 in New England, so the Patriots are the straight up pick here.

Over/Under Pick

The over/under in this game is 48.5. I expect one team to score a lot while the other doesn’t so I’m taking the under on this one.

Game Update

How did the mighty Patriots fall in the 2017 NFL season opener? Alex Smith and Kareem Hunt stunned everyone who thought the Chiefs wouldn't leave Gillette Stadium with a win.

Kansas City head coach Andy Reid also figured out a way of beating his counterpart Bill Belichick and managed to lead his team to put up more points than any other opponent throughout his career.

Here's how it happened:

The Chiefs ran 63 plays and gained 541 yards, 352 through the air and 189 on the ground.

Alex Smith had one of the best games of his NFL career

Kareem Hunt had the best Week 1 debut any rookie has ever had (246 total yards were the most ever by any player in Week 1 of his rookie season)

Tyreek Hill burned the Patriots' touted secondary (seven catches for 133 yards and a touchdown)

And the Chiefs stuck 42 points on a defense that allowed the fewest points than any in the NFL last season.

And, let's not forget, the Chiefs' defense did its job masterfully, pestering Brady all game long, forcing him to complete only 16 of 36 passes for 267 yards, without a single touchdown pass.

The Takeaways?

Though the Patriots lost the first game, they're still the favorites to win the Super Bowl once more and everyone knows it. In case you didn't notice those five banners flying on the rafters, you might want to take a closer look:

There's still no love for Roger Goodell in New England. If maybe for some reason Goodell was expecting a warm welcome, he was sorely wrong:

Alex Smith showed everyone that this year he's hungry for a championship ring.

The Chiefs silenced the naysayers that didn't believe they could topple the reigning kings and proved that even the Vegas oddsmakers can make mistakes.

Maybe the Patriots won't miss Edelman quite as much if Danny Amendola keeps on playing like he did in this game. But, let's hope he can make it back after being taken out later on in the game because of a possible concussion.

Here's a video with the highlights

 
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