Bet On These Thursday Night Football ATS, SU, and O/U Picks

Bet On These Thursday Night Football ATS, SU, and O/U Picks

Thursday Night Football kicks off with the New England Patriots facing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and everyone and their uncles are expecting a shootout between these two, so get ready to bet with these predictions.

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New England Patriots vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • When: September 14, 2017, 8:25 PM ET
  • Where: Paul Brown Stadium
  • Spread: Bengals -6.5
  • Over/Under: 38
  • Moneyline: Bengals -275 vs Texans +230

Betting on the Patriots

Tom Brady is up to his usual self, driving the Patriots offense like a well-oiled machine. However, at 2-2, this year’s season is not what everyone expected from the Pats when it all started.

To be fair, most of the blame has to go to the defense which has been horrid. Currently, they’re on pace to give up a total of 7,309 yards and 512 points and could break the New Orleans Saints’ record for the most yards given up in an NFL season (7,042).

In Sunday’s 33-30 loss (at home) to the Panthers they gave up 32.0 points and 456.8 yards, with Carolina scoring four touchdowns and a field goal over seven possessions in the final three quarters.

New England’s pass defense has as many holes as a war zone, giving up a total of 1,311 yards and 11 touchdowns with opposing quarterbacks amassing harrowing 116.5 passer ratings. In last week’s loss to the Panthers, Stephon Gilmore appeared to be the biggest culprit. Gilmore will probably start alongside Malcolm Butler at cornerback, but with receivers like Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson, quarterback Jameis Winston can make it a long night for the Patriots’ secondary.

I don’t see the defense improving for this game, so it’ll be up to Tom Brady to pull out another rabbit from his hat and work his magic for the Patriots to win this game.

New England’s running game also needs to kick into gear. Mike Gillislee needs to pick things up; as it stands, he seems always one broken tackle away from breaking loose on a lot of plays.

Obviously, he’s up to the task. But, the defense is making it very hard for him to do his job.

Patriots Last Results

Date

Opponent

Game

Result

Score

ATS

Spread

OU

Total

Sep 7, 2017

vs Kansas City

REG

L

42-27

L

-8

O

47.5

Sep 17, 2017

@ New Orleans

REG

W

36-20

W

-6

O

55.5

Sep 24, 2017

vs Houston

REG

W

36-33

L

-13.5

O

44

Oct 1, 2017

vs Carolina

REG

L

33-30

L

-9

O

47.5

Betting on the Buccaneers

The Bucs can win – or at least cover – this game, but they’ll need a flawless performance from Jameis Winston.

Despite having good numbers in three starts this season, he still makes some unexplainable passes.

And, if he’s going to keep up with Tom Brady there’s no room for error. Luckily for him, he’ll be playing the softest pass defense in the NFL.

Tampa Bay is also playing well via the ground attack, with running back Jacquizz Rodgers leading the way with 150 rushing yards on 35 carries in the two home wins. However, the Bucs might go with Doug Martin instead to face the Patriots.

The Buccaneers have the home field advantage, where they hold a six-game winning streak stemming from last season and including a win over the New York Giants 25-23 in Week 4.

Tampa Bay gained over 300 yards passing and over 100 yards rushing last week against the Giants. If they can once more pull this off tonight, it will be the second time in franchise history they’ve done it in back-to-back games. And, considering New England has allowed over 300 yards passing and over 100 yards rushing in two straight games, they might just go ahead and do it.

Buccaneers Last Results

Date

Opponent

Game

Result

Score

ATS

Spread

OU

Total

Sep 17, 2017

vs Chicago

REG

W

29-7

W

-7

U

44

Sep 24, 2017

@ Minnesota

REG

L

34-17

L

Ev

O

41

Oct 1, 2017

vs NY Giants

REG

W

25-23

L

-2.5

O

46

Patriots vs Buccaneers Betting Trends

  • New England is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games
  • New England is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games
  • Tampa Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
  • Tampa Bay is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
  • Tampa Bay is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home

Picks and Predictions

The Patriots are favored to win this game by 4.5 points. The over/under on total points scored is 54.5.

  • ATS Pick: New England -4.5
  • Straight Up Pick: Patriots
  • Over/under Pick: Over 54.5.

Given how bad both of these team’s defenses are, it’s fairly certain this game will turn into a high-scoring affair. So no matter what the total is, I’m betting the over as a lock pick.

 
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