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Super Bowl Sunday is the biggest betting night in the United States because there are so many ways you can bet on the game. You can pick the winner, take the point spread, bet on the total points scored, and also on prop bets.
Let’s take a look at some of the available bets and give you the best options to choose from.
Five Bets To Make On The Super Bowl
Point Spread
The current point spread for the Super Bowl is New England -5.
What does this mean? Simply that the Patriots are the favorites to win the game.
Also, that if you’re betting against the spread on New England, they have to win by more than five points for you to win your bet.
If you’re betting on the Eagles (+5), they can’t lose by more than five points, or win, for you to win your bet.
If they don’t, that is if the team you bet on doesn’t win, or lose, by more than the “line” then they haven’t covered the spread and you lose your bet.
Which outcome do you believe more likely, that the Patriots win by more than five points or the Eagles not lose by more than five?
Which team will cover the spread?
Before you put your money where your mouth is, consider a few things.
As the defending champions, there will be a lot of bets on the Patriots to win it all, especially since the Eagles will be starting their backup quarterback in the game.
When the lines opened, the point spread was New England –6.5 or -6, but quickly dropped to -5.5 or -5 because of the betting public taking action on the Eagles.
This is considered a good number for sportsbooks because they can move the line up or down with less risk of being middled than when the line is settling between 3, 4 or 7.
What does this mean?
In Super Bowl betting lore the tales tell of Black Sunday, the day when sportsbooks bled profits.
It was Super Bowl 13 and the Pittsburgh Steelers had opened as the 3.5-point favorites over the Dallas Cowboys.
Later on, as the game got closer the line moved to -4.5, which opened up the books for a perfect storm of bettors that had taken Pittsburgh at -3.5 and now could take Dallas at +4.5.
As things would have it, the game ended Pittsburgh 35, Dallas 31.
That’s right, a win on the Steelers and a win on the Cowboys. Back then, those that bet the middle probably profited big time.
These days, with so much money bet on the Super Bowl, sportsbooks could lose millions if something like that happened again.
Anyhow, back to Super Bowl 52.
The public action has gone to the Eagles in the first week of Super Bowl betting.
It seems “everyone loves an underdog,” as they say. But in this case, it could be sound advice considering dogs have covered in 12 of the last 16 Super Bowls.
Still, don’t be surprised of seeing the line moving to Patriots -4 by the end of the weekend which could make New England a better bet. The largest margin of victory for the Pats in a Super Bowl was last year’s win over the Falcons 34-28; all of the other games have been close.
Rob Gronkowski’s injury plays into things as well and Eagles’ quarterback Nick Foles is still underestimated despite overcoming two tough games in which he was also the underdog. This could be a complicated game for the Patriots and the Eagles could give them one heck of a fight.
If you’re betting on the Eagles, the best time to make your point spread pick may be right now.
Since it’s still two weeks away, it might make more sense to wait as long as possible before making your point spread pick if you’re betting on the Patriots because there could be significant injuries that could affect the outcome of the game in the upcoming days.
Best Total Bet
The best total bet to take during the Super Bowl is the individual team totals. Since the game itself could either be a blowout or a close game, it is more difficult to predict how many combined points the teams will score.
Nevertheless, here’s a crack at it.
As it is, the total is at 48; which, considering both offenses and how the Eagles fared against a much tougher defense than that of the Patriots, makes the OVER seem to be the better bet.
However, I expect the line will move towards 49 as the game date approaches so if you’re waiting you might want to consider taking the under instead.
Back to the case at hand; betting on how many points each team will score might be a better idea because you can go back and look at the team stats from previous games to give you a good idea of how many points they might score.
Obviously, the circumstances surrounding this game are unlike any other game in the season which does, in fact, affect how each team performs. But, in looking at the lines, you can make a reasonable prediction of how many points each team can score given all you know about these teams.
The Patriots team total is 27, which seems low considering the Patriots’ experience in Super Bowls. Last year, they scored 34 points over the Falcons and shut down one of the best offensive teams of last season. They might have to do without Gronkowski, but they’ve proved they can get the job done before without him. They can still score dozens of points when it comes to it.
Meanwhile, the Eagles team total is 21 which, at first, seemed high. But, after seeing Nick Foles demolish the 4th ranked Vikings defense I have a lot to think about. Foles is the consistently underrated player and I think he might end up being the X-factor for the Eagles.
Best ML/SU Bet
This might actually be one of the safest Super Bowl bets if you think you know which team will win it. Since it is the Super Bowl and neither team has a significant advantage, the money line will be reasonable, allowing you to make a decent profit.
In this case, the money line is -190 for the Patriots and +165 for the Eagles.
This means that you have to bet $190 to win $100 if you’re betting on New England and $100 to win $165 if you’re betting on Philadelphia, but that isn’t very useful on the face of it.
This becomes useful when you convert the moneyline to a probable outcome. I’ll spare you the math, but it comes down to sportsbooks thinking the Patriots have a 65.62% implied probability of winning versus 37.74% of the Eagles winning.
If you believe the Patriots have a higher likelihood of winning, that is more than a 65% probability, then the Patriots are your bet. If on the other hand, you believe the Eagles have a better than 37% probability of winning the game then you might want to lay some money on the Eagles.
Best Halftime Bet
Halftime betting is another way to make some good profit during the Super Bowl. After watching the first half, you will be able to determine if the team that is ahead will keep the momentum or if the team that is behind will be able to make a comeback.
Halftime bets work with point spreads, totals, and moneylines; on a point spread, you’ll see a line that tells you how many points the favorite team will have to win by either in the first half or the second half of the game.
The Eagles are the 3-point underdogs in the first half which means they can’t lose by more than four points in the first half if you’re betting on them. Conversely, if you bet on the Patriots at -3 they have to win by more than three points in the first half for you to win your bet.
Given the Eagles momentum, they might be a good first half bet but after the Patriots fought their way back last season and against the Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC Championship Game, it could be a smart idea to put some money on them if they fall behind at the half in this game.
Best Prop Bets
Prop bets are another good way to make some money. Even though there are so many prop bets to choose from, the best prop bets to make in the Super Bowl is the coin toss, which has fallen on heads in five of the last seven Super Bowls. It’s a 50/50 shot and you don’t have to stake your salary on it, you’re just having fun.
The Super Bowl MVP is also another easy prop bet to take because the award goes to the quarterback of the winning team most of the time. After picking the team you like to win, place a wager on their quarterback to win the Super Bowl MVP.
Now that you have five bets you can make on Super Bowl 52, you can go ahead and put your money where your mouth is.
