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Green Bay Vs Atlanta NFC Championship ATS Pick

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Green Bay Vs Atlanta NFC Championship ATS Pick

You might already have your picks weekend’s NFL games, when the four remaining contenders will duke it out to see which teams head to Super Bowl 51. But, do you know what is the best ATS bet in the NFC championship? Is it the Falcons or the Packers? Let me give you a breakdown of what I think is the best against the spread pick for the NFC Championship game.

Green Bay Packers Vs Atlanta Falcons NFC Championship ATS Pick

What: NFC Championship Game
Who: Green Bay Packers (10-6) at Atlanta Falcons (11-5)
When: Sunday, January 22, 2017
Start Time: 3:05 PM ET  
Where: Atlanta, GA
Stadium: Georgia Dome
Spread: Falcons -4
Moneyline: Green Bay +170 vs Atlanta -185
Game Total: 60
Watch: FOX Sports
Stream: Fox Sports Go
Listen: Green Bay vs Atlanta

Should you bet against the spread for the Atlanta Falcons?

First, you should know that the home teams are the betting favorites to win this weekend. In this case, Atlanta is the 4-point favorite to head to Houston on February the 5th. But, here’s the rub (and something you may not know), home favorites where 6-0 against the spread in last weekend’s games, however, it was the Packers (+5) and the Steelers (+2) that won outright.

The Falcons are currently the 5.5-point home favorites, which is a two and a half point jump from when these two last played back in Week 8 when the Falcons did not cover at -3 with a score of 33-32. Why is that? Well, it could be because back then Green Bay didn’t have a leading runner. In fact, they didn’t have a receiving team either because Randall Cobb, Ty Montgomery, nor Jared Cook played in the first game. And, wait, these three combined for 247 totals yards and three touchdowns in the Packers’ win over Dallas.

Should you bet against the spread for the Green Bay Packers?

Here’s something for you to chew on, the public betting money is siding with Green Bay plus the points (60%). This may because the Packers have also gone 7-1 ATS in their last eight road playoff games. Or, it could also be that Atlanta is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games as favorites.

Based on what I saw last week and how Aaron Rodgers is performing, I think you might agree with me that it’s reasonable to think that Rodgers will stay within less than four points. In other words, I still see the Falcons winning the game, but I’m not quite convinced they can do so by 6 points.

Just in case, let me throw at you a few other numbers that might be relevant: The Packers are 71-41 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992; meanwhile, Atlanta is 13-28 ATS in home games after two or more consecutive wins also since 92. Those are pretty telling numbers, wouldn’t you say?

My Green Bay Packers Vs Atlanta Falcons NFC Championship ATS Pick

In any case, what is the best ATS bet in the NFC Championship? The public is backing the Packers but the sharps are siding with the Falcons, it’s a tough call. I’m going to go out on a limb and side with the public on this one, but I’ll let you in on another reason why I’m doing so. Both of Ryan's postseason victories have been over the Seahawks. Against everyone else, he's 0-4. Also Ryan's top receiver, Julio Jones, aggravated a toe injury last week which might hamper his performance this week. So there, it’s the Packers at +5.5 for me.

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