Super Bowl 52 Against The Spread Pick

The New England Patriots will play the Philadelphia Eagles in the Super Bowl on February 4, and despite the fact that the Patriots are the defending Super Bowl champions, many people believe the Philadelphia Eagles have a good chance to win it as well.

ATS Pick and Point Spread Analysis

The point spread for the game opened at -5.5 for New England, and it has already moved to -5. By the time the Super Bowl comes around, the line would have probably moved again.

This is a game where the spread is for the most part determined by the betting public, not by the sharp action. The line sways on the betting public’s whim and which team they’re betting on. 

The Super Bowl is by far the game which more money is bet on with this year expecting well over $100 million dollars’ worth of bets. You'd be amazed at the bets you can make on the Super Bowl. 

With that being said, it is time for us to take a look at both teams and tell you why we think they can each beat the spread.

New England Patriots

If you were betting against the spread this season, you probably made a lot of money betting on the Patriots, who finished the season 11-5 ATS. In the playoffs, the Patriots are 1-1 against the spread but their regular season success still makes them a good bet to cover in the Super Bowl.

The line currently favors them at -5 down a point from where it opened at 6, probably because of concern over Tom Brady’s throwing hand, which he cut before the AFC Championship Game and needed 12 stitches.

If the hand is fully healed by the time the Super Bowl comes around, the Patriots will be confident in their chances of not only winning but covering the spread.

Another reason the Patriots will cover the spread is the fact that they will likely have Rob Gronkowski back. Their All-Pro tight end left the Jacksonville game because of a concussion, but with two weeks off, he should be ready to go. 

If Brady and Gronkowski are fully healthy for the Super Bowl, it makes it hard to believe they won’t cover the spread.

Regardless, even if Gronk doesn’t play, it still doesn’t factor New England’s defense that could turn the tide in what the score is in the end.

The Pats’ defense is often not respected enough, but they’re tough as nails especially on the road where they rank 2th in points allowed per game at 16.1.

New England has a good run on beating the spread as they’re 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games. It gets better when they’re favored by 7 points or less because they’ve covered on 13 consecutive games in that circumstance.

If you look at the longer term trend, New England is also 20-7-3 ATS over their last 30 games with the point spread favoring them by 7 or fewer points.

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles have been the underdogs in all their games during the playoffs, so they aren’t bothered by the fact that they will be the underdogs once again.

Even though the team has been without their starting quarterback since week 14, Nick Foles has filled in nicely, which has allowed head coach Doug Pederson to call plays as if Carson Wentz was still under center, instead of going conservative like some other coaches do.

Foles rewarded Pederson’s confidence with a solid performance against the Atlanta Falcons in the Divisional Round and a great performance against the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC Championship game, throwing for 352 yards and three touchdowns.

In fact, his two playoff performances, both as 3-point underdogs, were great.

Sportsbooks believed Atlanta and Minnesota to be 6-points better than the Eagles with Foles at the helm.

Now they think the Patriots are also 6 points better, are they once more underestimating him? Remember, Foles has practiced with the first string for the past six weeks and has connected with his receivers.

Anyhow, while Foles’ performance has helped the Eagles win, their defense has been the key to their recent success, thanks to dominating performances against the Falcons and Vikings.

Now, they will be preparing to take on another great offense led by one of the greatest quarterbacks to ever play the game.

In order to cover the spread, the Eagles will have to get pressure on Brady and make him very uncomfortable, which could result in him throwing some costly interceptions or fumbling the ball. They also have to make sure they keep Dion Lewis in check because he can run and catch the ball, which will be problematic for the Eagles if they give him room to operate.

Arguably, the defense’s job is more difficult but it’s a task they’ve proved they can accomplish. The Eagles D has allowed an average of just 8.25 in their last four games.

These games were played at home, however, and their road numbers do show a different story. On the road, the Eagles have allowed 23.5 points per game which is a big disparity and one to be aware of.

Since the Eagles are the underdogs, they don’t have to win the game, they just have to keep the score closer than five.

If they can get pressure on Brady like they did with Case Keenum and Matt Ryan, they will not only cover the spread, they might win the game.

If you’re siding with the Eagles, your best ATS bet is to take one as soon as possible to get the maximum value. If you like the Patriots, maybe you should wait a while, perhaps until the Friday before the Super Bowl when all injuries are known, to get a better line.