Do You Make These 10 Super Bowl Betting Mistakes?

Over $138.5 million dollars in bets taken. That’s how much the Nevada Gaming Commission reports taking on Super Bowl 51.

Those numbers are just in Vegas, so the total betting action is probably 40X as much. And, the fact is sportsbooks usually make a killing on the Super Bowl. 

This is why if you’re thinking about betting the Super Bowl there’s still time for you to avoid these costly mistakes.

Costly Super Bowl Betting Mistakes You Should Avoid

Betting Either Too Early or Too Late

Are you too much of an early bird or have you missed catching the worm entirely? Here’s how you can avoid this mistake: with patience.

If you’ve paid attention to the line, you might have noticed the Patriots opening at -6 or even -6.5 soon after winning the AFC Conference title game.

Seeing how New England defeated the Jaguars might have pushed you into taking action on the Pats at those numbers. Then you saw the line quickly moving to -5.5, -5, and even -4.5 much to your chagrin.

Or maybe you feel you missed the boat by not taking the Eagles at +5.5.

First, take a deep breath. Let it go. The fact of the matter is there’s still around a week of betting before the game which means that the line will continue to move in the next few days.

If you’re a Pats fan, you may want to wait a bit to get a better price; if you’re backing the Eagles, your best bet might be to take a bet as soon as possible to not let a solid number pass you by.

Splurging Your Money

If there’s ever a golden rule in betting it would be money management. Too many a bettor forget themselves and act irresponsibly with their bankroll on the Super Bowl.

If you’ve established an amount of your bankroll to bet on the Super Bowl, then stick by it. Now, that doesn’t mean that you can’t place a bet if the price is right, but that you should always be aware of your bankroll.

For some reason, the Super Bowl tends to affect people’s perceptions to the point that they make rash decisions without thinking much about how this will affect them. This might be in the manner of increasing their bet amount simply because it’s the big game.

But, risking too much on a single bet or betting willy-nilly is a sure way to evaporate your bankroll instantly.

Making Decisions On Incomplete Information

Betting trends can help you make better decisions when placing a bet. Such trends as a team’s ATS record can give you a fair advantage over the sportsbooks that usually have more information than you.

But, plenty of folks just look at a trend over a short time period and, mistakenly, make a bet that although fact-based doesn’t really show the larger picture.

Also, the circumstances surrounding the Super Bowl throw many statistics out the window.

The truth is, though trends that hold up over time may give you some insight into how a team will perform in a game, they don’t give you much information for many prop bets.

Forgetting The Juice

The “juice” or “vig” is how sportsbooks make money (commonly a 10% included in the odds), and it’s usually crystal clear when you’re only betting on a side or a total.

However, with the literally thousands of props available on the Super Bowl, you might find yourself like a kid in a candy store splurging on props without paying attention that you might be overpaying for them.

Some props carry a heavy toll as bookmakers try to entice bettors to take action on the other side or after the betting public prompted books to adjust their price.

Do you really want to pay so much vig on a -170 line ($170 to make $100)?

Losing Track Of Your Prop Bets

Have you already taken a bet on a side or total? Good, don’t start taking props until you do.

Why? Because it makes your decision on which prop bets to take much easier.

If you like the OVER, then your prop bets should follow through on your decision. That means taking the over in passing or rushing props and maybe having more “Yes” to the Over on most of your bets.

If you believe Brady will crush the passing game (what hand injury?), then don’t take the Over on the Pat’s rushing yard props.

Think the Eagles will pound the ground game? Then there’s reason for you to stay away from betting on Alshon Jeffery’s reception props.

Not Shopping For A Better Line

You probably realize there are many sportsbooks out there in which you can place your bets. But, the fact of the matter is that most people will only open an account at less than a handful of books (maybe even just at one).

What you may not realize, is that different sportsbooks may cater to different profiles of bettors. Some books tend to square players, whereas others deal with sharps while some that offer reduced juice like to attract another crowd of players.

All of these books may give you a better line which could increase your chances of making a profit. This is true for betting in general and just as true for the Super Bowl.

Falling Into The Public Betting Trap

If you unthinkingly join the public betting without much consideration, then you might be heading into a headlong rush to losing. Don’t be a lemming.

Most of the public will tend to pound favorites and overs, overvaluing the importance of how everyone else is betting.

The fact is, it doesn’t matter how many people are on a certain side of a game but how much money is on a certain side of a game.

While you may not know exactly how much that is, there are some indicators which may give you a clue of where the money is going such as reverse line movement.

Let’s say that 85% of the public betting money is on Team A at -6.5, but you notice the line moving to -5.5 or -5.

This may point towards a large bet placed on Team B which moved the line against the public (look similar?). Now, while sharp betting may not play into the Super Bowl simply because it’s a betting public’s game it’s always important you pay attention to line movements.

Chasing The Line

Has this ever happened to you?

You’ve done your homework, made your pick on the over and feel confident in your decision.

But, by the end of the first half, you find yourself sweating bullets because your team only scores seven points so you quickly take the second half under line against your original bets.

Some people would rather pull out their fingernails than face the pain of seeing their pick losing in the middle of the game, so they end up jumping the gun and end up with egg on their faces.

Bookmakers know that it ain’t over till the fat lady sings, which means the one should not presume to know the outcome of an event which is still in progress.

If you’ve done your handicapping well, then trust your work and don’t tank a winning bet with a halftime loser because you’re scared.

Fall For The Media Blitz

Do you recall the Mayweather-McGregor fight? Be honest now, did you really believe McGregor would win?

Plenty of people probably did, not because they thought McGregor was the better boxer but because they fell for the siren call of the media enticing them to jump onto the Irishman’s bandwagon.

Don’t look now, but there’s a greater danger of falling into the Super Bowl media blitz even if you know your pick already.

If you already believe the Eagles will cover at +5, then why would you second guess yourself simply because everyone and their Fox Sports uncle is saying otherwise?

The Super Bowl is a P.T. Barnum’s dream come true. And, the media will keep on feeding the frenzy so long as there are hungry bettors willing to fall into the trap.

Do yourself a favor and tune out of all the noise of the media blitz creates and stick to your own decisions.

Raining On Your Own Parade

Are you having fun with your Super Bowl bet? If not, then put that bet money back in your pocket and treat yourself to something else instead.

Don’t rain on your own parade by taking the fun out of the last football game of the season. If Tom Brady didn’t throw a touchdown in the first quarter, don’t sweat it just grab yourself another beer and enjoy the game!

 
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