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If you’re not betting the fastest two minutes in sports on Saturday, you might miss out on a hidden fortune. Yes, the Kentucky Derby runs this Saturday at the historic Churchill Downs, and the race is wide-open to the twenty-horse field if you look at the Kentucky Derby betting lines.
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Kentucky Derby Betting
We’re starting to think that War of Will knows that he is very very handsome. pic.twitter.com/DL6emDoqzY
— Kentucky Derby (@KentuckyDerby) May 2, 2019
Let’s take a look at the favorites first. The first leg of the Triple Crown has had a favorite for a long time: Omaha Beach. But, things were shaken up on May 1 when it was announced that Omaha Beach had been scratched from the race.
This opened the field with three front-runners as favorites: Game Winner, Roadster, and Improbable (all three Bob Baffert-trained horses).
Game Winner: This horse returned to the track after an undefeated 2-year-old season to post runner-up finishes to Omaha Beach (by a nose in the second division of the Rebel Stakes) and to Roadster (by a half-length in the Santa Anita Derby), but was somewhat overshadowed by Omaha Beach and Roadster’s success this year. Omaha Beach will no longer race, which means Game Winner steps up as a favorite with 9/2 odds, he will be ridden by one of the best finishing jockeys around, Joel Rosario.
Roadster: After a six-month break, Roadster returned to track with a fury winning the Santa Anita Derby. This gave Roadster 100 prep points and gave its trainer, Bob Baffert, another horse for the Derby. Roadster is currently sitting at 5/1 odds. Jockey Mike Smith, who has ridden Roadster for all of his races, chose to go with Omaha Beach in the Derby. Rising star jockey Florent Geroux will now ride Roadster.
Improbable: Over the last couple of months, Improbable has lost some of its reputation and went up and down on the Kentucky Derby contender lists. The horse had a promising start this year when he nearly won the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park but lost to Long Range Toddy by a neck. He ran once more at Oaklawn for his final prep, but once more had to settle for second place in the Arkansas Derby. Regardless, Improbable is still among the favorites to win at 11/2 odds. Improbable is being ridden by reigning Eclipse Award-winning jockey in Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Tacitus: This horse showed plenty of physical grit in winning the Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets. After a bumpy start in the race, in which Tacitus got a nasty bump, he then clipped another horse’s heels and fell to seven lengths behind the leader with about three-quarters of a mile left. Tacitus then put the metal to the pedal with an eighth of a mile remaining to win by 1 1/4 lengths at the finish. Tacitus is currently at 9/1 odds.
Long Shot Bet
War of Will: The Mark Casse trainee won the Lecomte and Risen Star Stakes at the start of the year, positioning himself as one of the top 2019 Kentucky Derby contenders. A physical problem led to a ninth-place finish in the Louisiana Derby, but Casse believes the colt has put the issue behind him. Casse may have a point when you consider War of Will’s training at Churchill Downs, where he turned in three-straight workouts that were the fastest of any of the 2019 Kentucky Derby horses.
Kentucky Derby Prop Bets
The Derby has a bunch of fun prop bets that you can make. Take a look at: “How many lengths will be winner win by?” Less than one length 42 occasions have decided the Kentucky Derby. On the flip side though, the Derby has been won by four lengths or more 23 times. In this year’s Run for the Roses, the field appears to be fast with horses favoring a position up front. This could open the way from some of the deep closers to snatch the race from the front-runners down the stretch.
Another exciting prop is: “Will any horse win two of three Triple Crown Races? No (-175), or Yes (+135”. There’s a trend with Triple Crown winners in that they tend to come in bunches (three winners in the 1930s, four in 1940s, and three in the 1970s). That being the case, and considering the wide-open field for this year along with no clear favorite, there might be an opportunity with betting the “No” which is at -1000.
