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2018 College Football Week 10: Alabama Crimson Tide at LSU Tigers

alabama vs lsu 2018

The question is, will Alabama finally fall? The Crimson Tide’s offense is hands-down the best unit in college football, but LSU’s defense is no pushover. There are, however, a few things you need to know before you bet this game. Before we get to them though, the latest college football lines have the Tide as a 14.5-point favorites to win, can the Tigers beat the odds? Let’s see.

2018 NCAA Football Week 10: Alabama at LSU - Odds & Pick

  • When: November 03, 2018, 8:00 PM ET
  • Where: Tiger Stadium-LSU
  • Live ATS Odds: Alabama -14.5
  • Over/Under Total Odds: TBD
  • Moneyline: TBD

How’s the Weather?

  • Humidity: 72%
  • Precipitation %: 3%
  • Cloud Cover: 3%
  • Wind: 4 mph ESE
  • Stadium Type: Open

Why Bet on LSU?

Defense, defense, defense! Arguably, it’s the only way LSU can hope to beat Alabama. The Tigers are allowing just 15.1 points per game, which is the seventh-fewest in the nation and allowing 27 or fewer points in each of its last eight games.

The Tigers are also coming off a bye week and head into this game hoping to improve on its 7-1 record. They should have some motivation after stitching together back-to-back wins over the ranked Mississippi State and Georgia.

They’re also playing in Death Valley where they’re undefeated so far this season. However, they still haven’t been able to defeat Alabama in any of the times they’ve played and it’s hard to think how they’ll manage to end up on the winning side this time around given that the Crimson Tide is playing some of the best college football in recent history.

The Tigers though have been continually undervalued, even if they’ve clobbered their competition and are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games and 7-1 SU in its last 8 games.

Why Bet on Alabama?

Even if the Crimson Tide has to travel to Death Valley, they’ve won each of the last seven games over LSU which may be why they opened as a 14.5-point favorite for this game. The fact they’re at a perfect 8-0 this year and is coming off its bye week also weighs heavily in the point spread.

Alabama has been a juggernaut when it comes to putting up points, lighting up the scoreboard with 433 points for an average of 54.1 points per game. Not only that, but they’re also surrendering the 10th-fewest points per game at 15.9.

Heisman Trophy candidate Tua Tagovailoa leads the offense and has thrown for a healthy 2,066 yards with 25 touchdowns and no interceptions without setting foot on the field for the fourth quarter this season. Arguably, this is probably Nick Saban’s best offer in his storied career.

However, the Tigers will probably step up their secondary to force Alabama into running the ball which will be tricky given LSU’s front seven. If the Tigers manage to force Alabama into the ground game, perhaps, it could be the Crimson Tide’s only chink in their armor.

Alabama vs. LSU Betting Trends

  • Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Alabama's last 5 games
  • Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
  • Louisiana State is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games
  • Louisiana State is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Louisiana State's last 5 games

Game Prediction: Even if the Crimson Tide is formidable, it’s hard to see them covering the 14-point spread. The Tigers haven’t lost at Tiger Stadium by double-digits since two years ago when they lost to Alabama. These are two top-10 AP poll ranked teams and are tough as nails in defense, so don’t expect too many points to go up on the scoreboard. The UNDER seems to be a good bet.

Pick: LSU +14.5 and the UNDER.

 
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