BYU vs Boise State Betting Pick

The Boise State Broncos enter this match with a big chip on their shoulders having lost to BYU last year, 35-24. Both teams have had a tough schedule that didn’t give them too much time to rest but the Cougars have the home field advantage.

Boise State has played and beaten two of the four teams that beat them last season. They get another shot this weekend against BYU.

— Paul Schneider (@PaulJKBOI) October 18, 2016

Before you bet the BYU vs Boise State Thursday Night college football game find out why I believe this to be the upset pick of the week.

Bet BYU vs Boise State On Thursday Night

• What: BYU Cougars (4-3) at No. 14 Boise State Broncos (6-0)
• When: Thursday, October 20, 2016
• Start Time: 10:15 PM ET 
• Where: Boise, ID
• Stadium: Albertsons Stadium
• Spread: Boise State -7.5
• Moneyline: BYU +240 at Boise State -280
• Game Total:
• Watch: ESPN
• Stream: Watch ESPN
• Listen: BYU vs Boise State

Why bet on the BYU Cougars?

Last season the Cougars beat the Broncos with a Tanner Mangum Hail Mary touchdown pass and a late pick-6 that sealed the deal, but is that enough reason to bet on BYU? This year, the Cougars are on a three-game winning streak and at 4-3 after winning over the Mississippi State Bulldogs in double overtime, 28-21, last Friday.

Though outgained by the Bulldogs by a 386-311 margin, the Cougars nevertheless tied the game in the fourth quarter and then turned things around with a couple of sacks from Sae Tautu and Logan Taele to seal the deal.

Quarterback Taysom Hills led the offense with 3 touchdown passes with just one interception. However, I expect the Cougars’ running game to take front and center with senior running back Jamaal Williams, who has the school’s rushing record with 3,468 total yards and is ranked second in the nation in rushing yards with 942 this season.

However, it’s the Cougars’ defense that will surprise once more in this game. And, perhaps win it. The Cougars allow just around 25 points per game, but has kept their previous five of seven opponents to under their projected team total and is only giving up 3.5 yards per carry. Though the Broncos rely primarily on the passing game, I believe that by disrupting their ground game, they’ll throw them in disarray. 

Why bet on the Boise State Broncos?

Boise State is having a fantastic year once again and is now 6-0 settling in at No. 14 in the AP Top 25 after defeating the Colorado State Rams, 28-23 on Sunday. That sounds like a great reason to bet on Boise State. Behind a fantastic performance by Jeremy McNichols, who rushed for 217 yards and two touchdowns on 40 carries, the Broncos secured an impressive victory once again. If McNichols’ performance was impressive, so was quarterback Brett Rypien’s in that he completed 16 of 24 passes for 207 yards and one touchdown.

However, here’s where I see the rub. The Broncos rely heavily on McNichols to move the chains and allow Rypien to move the ball through the air. This is where the Cougars can hurt the Broncos; if BYU’s defense has a good night they’ll make Rypien’s job a nightmare.

Head-To-Head Betting Trends

• Brigham Young is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
• Brigham Young is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Brigham Young's last 7 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Boise State's last 10 games at home
• Boise State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Brigham Young
• Boise State is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Brigham Young

BYU vs Boise State Betting Prediction

The Cougars’ defense can keep them in this game. BYU has gone tit for tat against one of the toughest schedules in the nation and they’ll win this game for the huge upset.