2019 AFC Divisional Round: Chargers at Patriots Odds & Game Preview

2019 AFC Divisional Round Chargers at Patriots

The team that has dominated football for the last two decades now finds itself in the unfamiliar spot of being less than a touchdown favorite at home. Though the latest NFL lines have the Patriots as a 4.5-point favorites, are the Chargers the better team this year? Let’s find out.

2019 AFC Divisional Round: Chargers at Patriots Odds & Game Preview

  • When is the Chargers vs. Patriots? January 12, 2019, 8:15 PM ET
  • Where is the Chargers vs. Patriots?: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA
  • What is the Chargers vs. Patriots Spread? Patriots -4.5
  • What is the Chargers vs. Patriots Total? 49.5

Why Bet on the Chargers?

The Chargers have the difficult task of beating the Patriots on their home turf. It’s difficult because New England hasn’t lost a playoff game at Gillette Stadium since 2013, including an 8-0 SU home record this season.

But, it’s also become clear the Rams are arguably the best team to dethrone the Pats. If they can play as they did against the Ravens last weekend, there’s no reason to believe otherwise.

Los Angeles’ defense did an outstanding job of rattling Lamar Jackson’s cage. But, of course, whether they’ll be able to do the same with Tom Brady is quite another, questionable, matter.

The Chargers may have another advantage against New England, specifically over its secondary. The Patriots have allowed 29 passing TDs this season and ranked 22nd in passing yards allowed per game. Not a pretty picture, and a weakness the Chargers can exploit.

Why Bet on the Patriots?

The biggest reason why to bank on the Pats in this game is apparent to everyone who's not blind. They’re playing at home. This season, New England went 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS in eight home games having won by an average margin of 16.2 points.

Even if three of the games mentioned above were against chump teams, the other five were over Chiefs, Colts, Texans, Packers, and Vikings.

There’s no question that with a record like that it would make even the best of teams stop and think of what they’re up against; then again, anything can happen in football.

Another possible factor in the Patriots holding an advantage in this game is the weather. While the Chargers may be used to West coast sunshine, it’s not going to be quite like that in New England on game day.

Chargers vs. Patriots Betting Trends

  • LA Chargers is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games
  • LA Chargers is 5-0 ATS in its last five games on the road
  • LA Chargers is 1-4 ATS in its last five games when playing New England
  • New England is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games at home
  • New England is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games when playing at home against LA Chargers
  • New England is 8-1 SU in its last nine games when playing at home against LA Chargers

Game Analysis: The Patriots have only failed to cover once at home in a divisional round game since 2011. They’ve also won seven straight divisional games at Gillette Stadium. There’s also the fact, after having a first-round bye, are rested. All of this points toward not picking the Patriots ATS at your peril.

Pick: Patriots -4.5