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It’s the age old question in football, what happens when the the best defense plays against the best offense? It’s a fair question, being that history teaches a few lessons about it. This year it happens that we’ll might be the answer in practice as the No. 1 offense of the Atlanta Falcons matches the No. 1 defense of the New England Patriots. What do you think, will the the best defense beat the best offense? Let’s find out…
Can the Falcons' Top Scoring Offense Beat The New England Patriots' Top Defense?
What: Super Bowl LI
Who: New England Patriots (14-2) vs Atlanta Falcons (11-5)
When: Sunday, February 5, 2017
Start Time: 6:30 PM ET
Where: Houston, TX
Stadium: NRG Stadium
Spread: Patriots -3
Moneyline: New England -150 vs Atlanta +140
Game Total: 59.5
Watch: FOX Sports
Stream: Fox Sports Go
Announcers: Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Erin Andrews & Chris Myers
Listen: New England vs Atlanta
Bettors counting on Atlanta to impose their high-scoring ways must be wary of the wisdom given by the adage that “defense wins championships.”
But, this is the Atlanta Falcons we’re talking about and for everyone who’s watched their games this season, it’s easy to think they might buck the trend.
Atlanta heads into the Super Bowl scoring an average of 33.8 points per game, which is more than twice of what the Patriots allowed in average per week at 15.6. The Falcons also are a team that scored with a greater frequency than any other in the league. And, of the Patriots last eight Super Bowl appearances, they’ve not faced such as offense.
As former Washington Redskins quarterback, Joe Theismann-who also faced a Bill Belichick designed defense-, notes: “On offense, just generally speaking, there are more things that can go wrong than can on the defensive side of the ball.” This is because it’s much easier to focus your defense on one or two offensive players to disrupt the offense. But, Kyle Shanahan’s designed offense led by a Matt Ryan that’s at the top of his game is extremely versatile. In his 38 touchdown passes of this year, Ryan hit 13 different receivers with Julio Jones being the best of the lot. But, you also find Mohamed Sanu, Taylor Gabriel and running backs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman who both are good receivers and might overwhelm the Patriots defense.
One thing that’s interesting to note, is that the betting public is leery of New England’s defense as is shown by the 59 Over/Under line, the highest in NFL history. We’ve seen a line as high this in another important game, the NFC Championship between the Falcons and the Green Bay Packers, set at 59.5, which might gleam some insights into that the oddsmakers are thinking that the Patriots defense will fare as did that of the Packers.
But, the Packers defense wasn’t nearly at the level of that of New England’s, which leads us into how preparted is the Pats's defense to beat the Falcons' league-leading offesne?
History is on the New England Patriots defense side. Let’s start with a few glaring facts: Since the AFL-NFL merger, this Super Bowl marks only the sixth time in 47 seasons that teams that led the league in points scored and points allowed will play for a championship.
Of those previous five times, four were won by the top defense with the most recent being that of Super Bowl XLVIII, when the Seahawks crushed the Broncos, 43-8. One of those Super Bowls, XXV, merits particular attention. At that time, Bill Belichick was the defensive coordinator of the Giants and masterminded a 20-19 upset of the Bills that came in as the 6 1/2-point favorites to win.
Another relevant trend is that of the last nine teams to reach the Super Bowl after leading the league in fewest points allowed, seven have won. On the other hand, the regular season leader in points has gotten to the Super Bowl more times (20), and those teams are 10-10 which doesn’t give a clear indication regular season leaders in points scored winning or losing.
All this goes to show that there really are no telltale measures of how a team will play in the Super Bowl. While in general terms teams with the better defense tend to win the championship, the Patriots themselves showed two years ago when they defeated the Seahawks in Super Bowl XLIX that the only thing that matters is what you do on the field from the first snap to the last whistle blow.
