How To Bet Steelers at Patriots: Spread, Pick & Prediction

Steelers at Patriots 2019
  • The Steelers are given a touchdown for this game despite having a 4-0 ATS record as a road dog last season.
  • The Patriots, however, were 7-2 ATS as a home favorite last year.

How To Bet Steelers at Patriots: Spread, Pick & Prediction

The Steelers at Patriots is the prime-time matchup of Week 1 in the NFL regular season. New England opened as a one-touchdown favorite, but the spread has come down to 5.5 at the moment of writing. What is the best bet that adds more value to your picks? Keep reading for insights.

  • When: September 08, 2019, 8:20 PM ET
  • Where: Gillette Stadium
  • NFL Odds: Patriots -5.5
  • Over/Under: 49
  • Moneyline: Steelers +220 vs. Patriots -260

How’s the weather?

  • Humidity: 60%
  • Precipitation %: 1%
  • Cloud Cover: 52%
  • Wind: 3 mph NW
  • Stadium Type: Open

Why Bet on the Steelers?  

Even if the Steelers are a road dog, and they’re playing the defending Super Bowl champs, they have plenty of things going for them. Pittsburgh’s starting QB, their top two receivers and running backs are all healthy heading into this game, so this will probably be more of a fight than what the spread suggests.

Remember, last December the Steelers beat the Pats 17-10 at Heinz Field as 2.5-point dogs. And, that was without RB James Conner and with Roethlisberger not playing well (he finished with a passer rating below 80).

But, what will make or break the Steelers in this game will be the defense. If Pittsburgh’s D can keep Brady and the Patriots offense in check, they have a shot at pulling off an upset. That’s easier said than done, of course, when you’re talking about New England playing at home.  

Last 3 Head-to-Head Record

  • Score: 19.33
  • Rush Yds.: 118.33
  • Pass Attempts: 37.00
  • Completion %: 67.57
  • Passing Yds. 267.33
  • Total Yds. 385.66
  • Turnovers: 1.67

Why Bet on the Patriots?  

The Patriots have to adapt to a season without Gronk in the fold, but much more than that they’ll have to do without center David Andrews, who won’t play in this game and is out indefinitely.

Without Andrews, the Patriots offensive line will have significant problems against the Steelers front seven, a lineup that led the league last year in sacks with 52.

However, the Patriots offense has its most significant weapon in Tom Brady. New England’s star quarterback hasn’t lost any game out of the five he’s started against Pittsburgh. Brady has also put up 18 touchdowns with no interceptions. There’s also the advantage that the Steelers’ secondary won’t have safety Sean Davis in the fold, which leaves Kameron Kelly to deal with Brady, and this is a player who was playing in the Alliance of American Football last spring.

Last 3 Head-to-Head Record

  • Score: 24.33
  • Rush Yds.: 76.67
  • Pass Attempts: 37.67
  • Completion %: 69.91
  • Passing Yds. 309.67
  • Total Yds. 386.34
  • Turnovers: 0.67

Betting Trends

  • Pittsburgh is 2-4 ATS in their last six games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last seven games.
  • Pittsburgh is 8-4 SU in their last 12 games.
  • New England is 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 9 of New England's last 12 games.
  • New England is 5-0 SU in their last five games.

Insider Prediction:  It’s always a hard sell to bet against the Patriots at Gillette. But, with the absence of Andrews, I believe the Steelers will have an easier time of getting to Brady. At 5.5 points, I have to say I like the Steelers in this one.

Pick: Steelers +5.5