Top Three NFL Week 5 ATS Picks

Packers vs. Cowboys 2019

There are plenty of storylines in Week 3, including two 20-plus point spreads. The money is still coming in on the games, but there are still a few bets you can jump on to beat the spread. We’ve picked our best ATS bets, keep reading to get them.

Jaguars at Panthers

  • When: October 06, 2019, 1:00 PM ET
  • Where: Bank of America Stadium
  • NFL Latest Line: Panthers -3.5
  •  Over/Under: 40
  • Moneyline: Jaguars +150 vs. Panthers -170

Analysis: This game will be a battle between two backup quarterbacks. Normally, I wouldn’t back on teams in which their first-stringer is not playing, but both Gardner Minshew (Jaguars) and Kyle Allen (Panthers) are evenly matched up.

Minshew has gained the respect of Jacksonville’s fans in place of Blake Bortles while Allen stepped in when Cam Newton got injured, and both have done an excellent job of keeping their team’s hopes alive, at least, for the moment.

Minshew did a great job against Denver last week when he led the Jaguars to a come-from-behind win. Minshew somehow managed to stay calm under pressure and held on to the ball for 7.51 seconds to then throw a touchdown pass to Ryquell Armstead. But, whether Minshew will be able to have a similar performance against Carolina’s defense is another matter.

The Jaguars will rely on the ground game, handing the ball to Leonard Fournette, and giving Minshew some limited opportunities to pass the ball to avoid Carolina’s pass defense. I think that the game plan will be successful.

Betting Trends

  • Jacksonville is 4-2 ATS in their last six games.
  • Jacksonville is 0-5 ATS in their last five games against an opponent in the NFC South division.
  • Carolina is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against an opponent in the AFC South division.
  • Carolina is 3-6 ATS in their last nine games played on a Sunday.

Pick: Jaguars +3.5

Cardinals at Bengals

  • When: October 06, 2019, 1:00 PM ET
  • Where: Paul Brown Stadium
  • NFL Odds: Bengals -3
  • Over/Under: 47.5
  • Moneyline: Cardinals +140 vs. Bengals -165

Analysis: Both of these teams are in the dumps, the Bengals are 0-4 while the Cardinals are no better at 0-3-1.

But, the good news is that one of these teams has to lose this game, unless, the game ends in an unlikely tie. On paper, the Cardinals have the better offense, which is offset by the Bengals’ “better” defense.

Cincinnati has the home-field advantage, but I believe the Bengals were walloped by last week’s crushing 27-3 loss to Pittsburgh, which means they’ll lose.

Betting Trends

  • Arizona is 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against an opponent in the AFC North division.
  • Cincinnati is 6-2 ATS in their last eight games.
  • Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in their last five games against an opponent in the NFC West division.

Pick: Cardinals +3

Packers at Cowboys

  • When: October 06, 2019, 4:25 PM ET
  • Where: AT&T Stadium
  • NFL Odds: Cowboys -3
  • Over/Under: 47
  • Moneyline: Packers +150 vs. Cowboys -180

Analysis: The Cowboys are reeling after their primetime Week 4 loss to the Saints, which opened up a can of worms for Dallas’ aspirations to make it to the Super Bowl.

Despite both teams being unable to gain a 4-0 record in Week 4, this is a great matchup. Green Bay wasn’t able to stop the Eagles, while Dallas couldn’t stop the Saints. But, the Cowboys lost a crucial player in Tyron Smith, which is likely a factor heading into this game.

Without Smith, I don’t see the Cowboys having an edge. Green Bay’s defense now has an opening to pester Dak Prescott, and Preston Smith will stick it to Prescott in the manner of a few sacks.

Betting Trends

  • Green Bay is 4-2 ATS in their last six games.
  • Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in their last five games played in October.
  • Dallas is 1-4 ATS in their last five games against an opponent in the NFC North division.
  • Dallas is 4-1 ATS in their last five games played in October.

Pick: Packers +3