Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans Odds and Free Game Pick

• Buffalo travels to the Lone Star State with hopes of gaining a wild card into the playoffs as the No. 5 seed heading into last weekend.
• The AFC South champion Texans grabbed the No. 4 seed after Kansas City’s win over the Chargers.  

Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans

• When: January 04, 2020, 4:35 PM ET
• Where: NRG Stadium
• NFL Latest Line: Texans -2.5
• Over/Under: 43.5
• Moneyline:  Bills +125 vs. Texans -145

Betting on the Bills?  

 The Bills have been great on the road this season behind a tough-as-nails defense that ranks 6^th in the league in DVOA. Buffalo’s defense should match up well against Houston’s up-tempo offensive style.

The Bills defense is also solid in preventing third-down conversions, allowing opponents to convert on third downs just 35.85% of the time.

However, Buffalo needs to be careful of allowing the Texans to get to the red zone as opposing offenses have scored 55.8% of the time once inside the Bills’ red zone.

As far as the Bills offense is concerned, they might want to take advantage of a weak Texans’ pass defense that’s allowed 267.2 yards per game this year. For the first time in six games, the Bills won’t be confronted with a top 10 defense and one that’s given up at least 30 points in six games.

Buffalo’s bread-and-butter on offense, however, is a strong running game with Devin Singletary and Frank Gore leading the way. Singletary, though will have to step up his game on first and second down opportunities.

Last 3 Head-to-Head Record

• Score: 20.00
• Rush Yds.: 127.67
• Pass Attempts: 31.33
• Completion %: 51.06
• Passing Yds. 184.00
• Total Yds. 311.67
• Turnovers: 1.67

Betting on the Texans?  

Three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year, J.J. Watt is back from injury, but it’s hard to say how he’ll fare after being out for such a long time. Watt missed the last eight games after suffering an injury back in Week 8.

The Texans’ defense has struggled big time on preventing third-down conversions with opposing offenses picking up a first down on 48.5% of tries. That percentage gets even worse when opponents reach the red zone, where Houston has allowed touchdowns 71.43% of the time.

It’s not going to be a walk in the park for the Texans' offense, but with the Bills struggling to score consistently, Houston's firepower with Deshaun Watson should give them an edge. Watson, a big-time threat with his passing game, having acquired more than 3,800 passing yards and 26 touchdowns. Watson also added 413 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns.

Last 3 Head-to-Head Record

• Score: 21.33
• Rush Yds.: 79.00
• Pass Attempts: 35.33
• Completion %: 62.26
• Passing Yds. 227.00
• Total Yds. 306
• Turnovers: 2.33

Betting Trends

• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last six games.
• Buffalo is 1-4 SU in their last five games against Houston.
• The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Buffalo's last 15 games on the road.
• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last nine games.
• Houston is 10-5 SU in their last 15 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last five games against Buffalo.

Insider Prediction: Houston has the home-field advantage, but the Bills will pull off the upset. 

Pick: Bills +2.5