NFL Week 1 Lock Pick: Cowboys vs. Giants

Cowboys vs. Giants 2019
  • The defending NFC East champions, Dallas Cowboys, have reached an agreement with star running back Ezekiel Elliot which means they’ll have him in this game.
  • The Giants no longer have All-Pro wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. in their ranks which could lead New York to depend more on the running game.

NFL Week 1 Lock Pick: Cowboys vs. Giants

There are sixteen games on the slate for Sunday, all of which have different storylines and possible betting advantages. Today, I’m going into one of the games which I consider a lock to put some money in your pocket. Let’s jump ahead and take a look at the

  • When: September 08, 2019, 4:25 PM ET
  • Where: AT&T Stadium
  • NFL Odds: Cowboys -7.5
  • Over/Under: 45.5
  • Moneyline: Giants +270 vs. Cowboys -330

How’s the weather?

  • Humidity: 36%
  • Precipitation %: 0%
  • Cloud Cover: 2%
  • Wind: 12 mph S
  • Stadium Type: Retractable

Why Bet on the Giants?  

New York hasn’t done well against the Cowboys. Dallas has dominated in the last years.

But, this year’s Giants may be a lot different than last year’s crew. New York has made some massive changes to its roster in the offseason.

New York went as far as trading away star receiver Odell Beckham Jr. to gain several draft picks and safety Jabrill Peppers.

Quarterback Eli Manning will now have Sterling Shepard as his primary target. One could argue Peppers is a far cry from Beckham’s talent, but the Giants will likely now rely more on the ground game with Saquon Barkley leading the attack.

The problem is that by relying heavily on the ground attack, opposing defenses will zero in on Barkley, and that might spell trouble for Dallas’ offense.

Last 3 Head-to-Head Record

  • Score: 19.30
  • Rush Yds.: 94.50
  • Pass Attempts: 35.80
  • Completion %: 65.92
  • Passing Yds. 223.70
  • Total Yds. 318.2
  • Turnovers: 1.30

Why Bet on the Cowboys?  

The Boys were already the favorites to win this game when the line opened. And now that Dallas has reached an agreement with running back Ezekiel Elliot, the line has moved to -7.5 at most shops.

The Cowboys seem to have New York’s ticket in recent history going back to 2013. Dallas has won seven of the last ten games these two teams have played. And, the Cowboys have also been formidable at home, where they’ve gone 5-1 in the previous six years.

The Cowboys are pretty much the same team as last year’s, and it’s tough to believe they’re going to let themselves lose to the Giants in the first game of the new season.

Last 3 Head-to-Head Record

  • Score: 24.00
  • Rush Yds.: 123.70
  • Pass Attempts: 34.10
  • Completion %: 63.64
  • Passing Yds. 261.80
  • Total Yds. 385.5
  • Turnovers: 1.30

Betting Trends

  • NY Giants are 4-2 ATS in their last six games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Giants' last five games.
  • NY Giants are 6-14 SU in their last 20 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas' last six games.
  • Dallas is 8-2 SU in their last ten games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas' last six games against NY Giants.

Insider Prediction:  At the current line, the sharp money is favoring the Giants. I don’t see Eli Manning managing to put up too many points without a prime target to go to, and Barkley will have too much heat on him. However, the line is soft, and I like the Giants plus the points.

Pick: Giants +7.5