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UFC 257 Odds: McGregor vs. Poirier Fight Analysis

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UFC 257 Odds: McGregor vs. Poirier Fight Analysis

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The 'Notorious' Conor McGregor (-275) is back in the octagon after one year of absence when he knocked Donald Cerrone out in 40 seconds. Now, he will be entering the cage weighing 155 pounds and against a tougher -but known- opposition.

Dustin 'The Diamond' Poirier (+215) will fill the other corner, and that nickname summarizes this fight incredibly. When they first fought at featherweight in 2014, Poirier was out cold within the first round due to Conor's left hand.

However, this is lightweight now. Probably no one in the business has grown as much as a fighter as Poirier. From a diamond in the rough to a diamond that has shone brightly in 155, all the way to an interim championship.

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Oh man, this is a tough category. Both fighters excel in striking. It's their bread and butter. While Poirier has a very high boxing level and is very creative with the rest of his striking, he can hammer punch you from the clinch or throw vicious elbows in short-range. Poirier has 12 KOs in his 26 victories.

However, is there any better striker in the history of the UFC than Conor McGregor? He is clever, hits like a truck, and can do it fast, quick, and in a hurry.

Mystic Mc has 19 KOs in 22 victories in his career, from iconic and fast KOs like the 13-second showing against Jose Aldo, a clinical combination KO like he did to Eddie Alvarez or fantastic comebacks where he grinds to knock Chad Mendes out. 

His southpaw stance is a problem on the counter and the pressure; he is so versatile it's just an uncomfortable matchup for anyone who faces Conor.

McGregor edges Poirier, but no knock on Dustin -pardon the pun-, he is also elite.


This one is not even close. McGregor hates grappling, plain and simple. He has one submission win, he is great at takedowns defense, but he is not a grappler, he has never been, and he will never be.

His takedown defense is the only thing that matters, so he can stay on his feet.

As for Poirier, he recently got his black belt in Jiu-Jitsu, has seven wins by submission, and is very polished. From armbars and body triangles to D'Arce Chokes, and his constant guillotine threats make Poirier a complete grappler.

This one goes to the Diamond by a landslide.


I mean, this is crucial, especially if you want to take part in UFC betting. If your fighter gasses out, you're in deep trouble, and in this one, Poirier is an absolute machine, he could go 10 rounds if he wanted.

In contrast, one of Conor's all-time criticisms is his low cardio. It has cost him his first fight with Diaz, and his lousy camp didn't allow his best version to show up vs. Khabib. His energy is a problem going into championship rounds. He usually doesn't get there, and he is in the KO business, not paid by the hour.

Finishing Rate

So, both of these fighters have tasted world championship gold, and that doesn't come by engaging in three or five round battles regularly, which will take a toll; you have to be able to finish your opponents, and both can do it to a high level.

Poirier has gotten the stoppage in 19 of 27 fights he's won. That's a significant 70% finishing rate. Out of his last five wins, he's finished three of them.

As for Conor, he is a straight killer. In 22 of the fights where the ref raised his hand, 20 didn't need the judges' scorecard. That's an insane 91% finish rate for the 'Notorious.'

This one is a mathematical stat and grandly goes to McGregor.


In a sport where fighters practice every detail, there is to the game tirelessly, with two, three, or more martial arts in their bandwagon, there are some skills you either have or not, and they don't involve practice, you're born and bred with them.

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