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Top Three 2019 Week 11 College Football ATS Picks

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LSU vs. Alabama 2019
  • The first College Football Playoff rankings dropped last Tuesday night, which means we’re in the home stretch of the season. The consequences of winning or losing for playoff selection are real.
  • Week 11 has plenty of important games with teams fighting for divisional races or bowl eligibility. This week has the most packed slate of the 2019 season, so far.

Top Three Week 11 College Football ATS Picks

Here are our top three college football ATS picks for Week 11.

Penn State at Minnesota

  • When: November 09, 2019, 12:00 PM ET
  • Where: TCF Bank Stadium
  • College Football Lines: Penn State -7
  • Over/Under: 47.5
  • Moneyline: Penn State -270 vs. Minnesota +220

Analysis: Both of these teams are coming off of a bye week, but the Gophers get to play at home, which gives them a bit of an edge to consider before placing a bet. The Nittany Lions are undefeated so far this season and have been seasoned with games against the Iowa Hawkeyes and Michigan State Spartans.

So far, Penn State has gotten the job done, including capturing a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS record on the road. The Nittany Lions, however, are not as dominant as teams such as LSU, Ohio State, Alabama, and Clemson, so the question is, can they hang a touchdown on the Gophers to cover the spread? I think they will.

Betting Trends

  • Penn State is 2-4 ATS in their last six games when playing on the road against Minnesota.
  • Penn State is 5-1 SU in their last six games against Minnesota.
  • Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in their last five games.
  • Minnesota is 6-0 ATS in their last six games against an opponent in the Big 10 conference.

Pick: Penn State -7

Washington at Oregon State

  • When: November 08, 2019, 10:30 PM ET
  • Where: Reser Stadium
  • College Football Lines: Washington -10
  • Over/Under: 65
  • Moneyline: Washington -380 vs. Oregon State +290

Analysis: Washington could get burned by Oregon State. The Beavers’ coach Jonathan Smith is not only doing a great job, but he’s also familiar with how the Huskies do things because of the time he spent there as their offensive coordinator from 2014-17.

However, after consecutively losing twice by a single-digit, the Huskies are probably itching to get back in the saddle, so this is a MUST win game for them.

The Huskies could attack via the ground game to exploit the Beavers’ rushing defense, that’s allowing 186.1 yards per game. Washington was also effective in the air attack against Oregon and Utah so they might take this route, too.

In my mind, what Oregon State has done to improve in the last few years is clearly showing in the results they’ve gained this season. The Beavers may not win it this time, but they’ll give Washington one hell of a fight.

Betting Trends

  • Washington is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games.
  • Washington is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games against Oregon State.
  • Oregon State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games.
  • Oregon State is 4-1 ATS in its last five games this season.

Pick: Oregon State +10

LSU at Alabama

  • November 09, 2019, 3:30 PM ET
  • Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium
  • College Football Lines: Alabama -6
  • Over/Under: 63
  • Moneyline: LSU +190 vs. Alabama -220

Analysis: The so-called “Game of the Century” hides the fact Alabama has won this series the last eight times they’ve played. However, LSU is on par with Alabama this time around on both sides of the ball.

The problem for Alabama is that quarterback Tua Tagovailoa may not play, and this could drastically change the outcome of the game even if the Crimson Tide has home-field advantage.

Both offenses are elite, ranking No. 1 and 2 in the SEC in total offense (LSU, 535.9 YPG; Alabama, 506.6 YPG) and scoring offense (Alabama, 48.6 PPG; LSU, 46.8 PPG). But, can the Crimson Tide put up as many points without Tagovailoa? Even against a vulnerable LSU defense, it’s hard to think Alabama scores as many points as they’re used to.

On the other hand, as we mentioned above, the Tide has won eight straight games overall, holding the Tigers to just 10 points in their last three meetings. Can LSU’s revamped offense buck that trend? I think so, considering how they’ve improved in passing offense from last season.

Betting Trends

  • Louisiana State is 7-2-1 ATS in their last ten games.
  • Louisiana State is 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games against Alabama.
  • Alabama is 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games played in week 11.
  • Alabama is 10-0 SU in their last ten games at home.

Pick: LSU +6

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