The Super Bowl betting lines were available soon after the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles booked their ticket to Minnesota by winning their conference championship games.
Super Bowl 2018 Early Odds and Point Spread Analysis
The opening line at some sportsbooks had the New England Patriots winning by 6 to 6.5 points, but it quickly moved down to 5.5 or 5 at most places which was surprising because of the expectations that the Patriots will be once more be the Super Bowl champions.
On second glance, however, the line made sense because Patriots quarterback Tom Brady played with a cut on his throwing hand that required 12 stitches. Since the Super Bowl is two weeks away, the cut might not be fully healed so the bookmakers have to be cautious.
The fact that tight end Rob Gronkowski suffered a concussion that forced him to leave the AFC Championship Game early also plays a part in the line moving down for New England.
When healthy, Gronkowski is arguably the best tight end in the game and creates a lot of matchup problems for opposing defenses. If he is unable to play, it means Brady will be without two of his favorite targets in Gronkowski and Julian Edelman, who suffered a season-ending injury during the preseason.
The betting public figured out the same thing and a lot of them took the Eagles +5.5 when the initial line came out, forcing the bookmakers to move the line to New England -5, where it currently stands.
With plenty of time left before the Super Bowl, expect the line to move some more depending on which team the betting public lays money on.
This is perhaps the one game where the betting public, rather than the sharp money, determines where the line moves.
Historically, the public tends to side with the underdog in the first week of betting action, which might not be too bad of an idea considering dogs have covered in 12 of the last 16 Super Bowls.
As of now, the betting public seems to be heavily backing the Eagles because of how the moneyline has been moving so far.
When the lines initially opened, the Patriots’ money line was at -210, while the Eagles were at +200. Since then, the money line for both teams has changed and it is currently -190 for New England and +165 for Philadelphia.
The significant change in the moneyline suggests the betting public is going with the Eagles at the moment, but that could change if they have a significant injury before the Super Bowl.
Something which also tends to affect line movements is how the betting public perceives each team; by now, some folks might be betting against the Patriots simply because they’re tired of seeing them there.
Don’t be surprised then to see the line move to -4 on the Patriots as the books attempt to balance the action and get more money coming in on the Patriots.
If you analyze how the Patriots have fared in their last Super Bowl appearances, you will note that the largest margin of victory was in last year’s game when they beat the Falcons 34-28.
All of the rest of their wins have been by a low margin and were really close games. In fact, back in 2005, the Patriots defeated this same team 24-21 with a point spread that favored them by 7 points.
If you look hard enough, you can find quite a few value bets, but right now, the best value bet for this game is the Philadelphia moneyline, which will likely drop some more before the game.
At +200 the implied probability the books believe the Eagles have is around 33%; but, at +164 this probability goes up to 37.88% which may be a good value bet.
The Eagles finished the season with the same record as the Patriots, and have embraced their role as underdogs since they defeated the Atlanta Falcons in the Divisional round of the playoffs when they were made home underdogs.
Philadelphia, and especially quarterback Nick Foles, have been underestimated in many people’s minds. But, as both his playoff performances have shown, Foles seems to fit into the Eagles’ game plan like a glove.
With six weeks of practice with the first string and the chemistry he’s built with the receivers, there’s no telling what surprises he can pull in the Super Bowl.
Also, Philadelphia’s defense has been the best in the playoffs so far, having allowed only 17 points in two games. With Brady dealing with a hand injury and Gronkowski possibly missing the game, the Eagles defense could make life difficult for the Patriots’ signal caller and force him into making mistakes.
Last week, the Jacksonville Jaguars almost knocked the Patriots out of the playoffs, but the team’s lack of offense cost them the game. The Eagles haven’t had any offensive problems so far so they should be able to put up points and win this game if their defense plays as well as it did in their first two playoff games.
These are some of our Super Bowl 52 Early Odds Analysis, we will have more for you as we get closer to the game but you can look at the current odds on the Super Bowl right now.
